气候变化对徐州市夏秋主要粮食作物的影响及对策研究

Study on Effects of Climate Change on Main Food Crops in Summer and Autumn and Countermeasures

利用详实的气象资料,分析了徐州市1950～2008年半个多世纪以来主要气象要素的变化。结果表明,夏季降雨量增多23%,冬春季温度分别升高了1.9和2.5℃,说明徐州地区的气候发生了明显的变化。夏季降雨量增多,导致夏季涝渍灾害加剧,秋熟旱作严重减产;冬季变暖,导致小麦苗期旺长,抗冻能力降低,春季易脱肥早衰,从而影响高产稳产。这些都直接威胁到粮食安全和农民增收。通过小麦适播期的变化和水稻、玉米等旱作产量的对比分析,论证了调整作物品种、播期和布局的必要性,据此给出了应对气候变化的措施,并分析了该措施可带来的巨大经济效益。

Changes of major meteorological factors during 1950-2008 in Xuzhou were analyzed by using meteorological data. The results showed that summer rainfall increases 23%,and the temperature rises for 1.9 ℃ and 2.5 ℃ respectively in winter and spring,and thus climate in Xuzhou has significantly changed. More summer rainfall causes increasing flood disaster and severe yield reduction. Also,winter warming causes overgrowth and reduces frost resistance,which affects production. All of these have harmful influence on good crop. By analyzing changes during appropriately sowing and production of rice and corn,the necessity of adjusting variety,sowing time and layout was demonstrated. And from this,measures to answer climate changes were given,and huge economic benefits those may bring were analyzed.