基于ELES模型的中国城乡居民消费结构实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Urban and Rural Residents' Consumption Structure in China Based on ELES Model

首先对消费结构的内涵进行界定,并通过恩格尔系数对我国城乡居民消费结构现状进行分析,发现我国农村居民消费结构的改善滞后于城镇居民,这在一定程度上反映出城乡居民消费水平的差距。然后,借助《中国统计年鉴》(1995—2007)年的数据,建立ELES模型,并利用该模型对我国城乡居民年均基本需求支出量、边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性进行比较分析,发现我国城乡居民消费结构存在显著的差异,最后分析其出现这种差异的原因,并提出缩小城乡居民消费结构差异的对策。

This paper first defined the connotation of the consumption structure,and analyzed the status quo of urban and rural residents＇consumption structure in China through the Engel Coefficient.It found that the improvement of rural consumption structure lagged behind that of urban residents,indicating,to some extent,that there exists a gap in consumption capability between the rural and urban residents.Furthermore,an ELES model was established with data from 1995 to 2007 in the ＂China Statistical Yearbook＂,on the basis of which a comparative analysis was conducted of basic consumption expenditure,the marginal propensity to consume,and the income elasticity of demand between China＇s urban and rural residents.The results showed that a significant difference exists in the consumption structure of China＇s urban and rural residents.Finally,the reasons for the differences were analyzed,and some countermeasures were proposed to help narrow the differences.