泉州市水资源风险评价

Water Resources Risk Assessment in Quanzhou City

基于自然灾害风险理论构建具有普适性的水资源风险评价指标体系,利用粗糙集理论对普适性指标进行约简,从而得到符合评价区实际情况的针对性指标,利用层析分析法-熵权法相结合的主客观组合赋权法为各指标赋权,在此基础上采用基于可拓论的综合评价方法进行水资源风险评价。通过上述方法的耦合完成泉州市水资源风险评价,结果表明:泉州市水资源风险评价针对性指标为人均水资源量、年均降雨量、人口密度、每公顷平均灌溉水量、万元GDP用水量、水资源开发利用程度、生活用水定额7项;近几年水资源风险程度处与中风险和较高风险。

The universal assessment indicator system for water resources risk is established in this paper based on the natural disaster risk theory,and it has been predigested by Rough Set theory.Thus we can get target indicator that is suitable for the situation in the evaluation area and the weight of the indicator has been identified by Entropy weight and Analytic Hierarchical Process synthetic approach.On this basis,a risk assessment of water resources has been made by the comprehensive evaluation method based on the extension theory.By employing the coupling of the methods above,we completed the risk assessment of water resources in Quanzhou.As it turned out,its target indicator consists of seven items： water resources per capita,average annual rainfall,population density,irrigation water per mu,water comsumption per unit GDP,development and utilization level of water resources and live use water quota.The result also indicates that the risks of water resources are in medium risks and relatively high risks.