基于虚拟水理论的郑州市农业水安全评价及对策研究

Research on Agricultural Water Security Assessment in Zhengzhou City and Some Couter-measures Based on Virtual Water Theory

农业水安全是我国水安全与粮食安全的基础和前提。以虚拟水理论为依托,从区域水安全、经济安全、粮食安全角度出发,构建了由自然技术、经济环境、社会生活3个方面构成的区域农业水安全评价指标体系,包括农业水分满足指数、水分生产效率、农业耗水比例、灌区地下水位下降幅度、粮食安全指数、粮食自给度等6项指标。基于层次分析的模糊综合评价方法,以郑州市为例,对其未来年农业水安全状况进行评价,指出郑州市农业水安全状况、变化趋势及存在的突出问题。根据评价结果对影响因子进行排序,提出了提高区域农业水安全的组合方案,在情景分析的基础上优选出未来时期内提高郑州市农业水安全水平的优选方案。

Agricultural water security is the basis and prerequisite of regional water and food security.Based on virtual water theories,economic security and food security view,a regional agricultural water security evaluation index system is established from the viewpoint of regional water security,which consists of 6 indicators of natural technology,economy and society,which includes agricultural water meeting index,water use efficiency,the proportion of agricultural water consumption,groundwater level decline rate of irrigation areas,food security index and degree of food self-sufficiency.According to the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process（Fuzzy-AHP） evaluation method,the agricultural water security of Zhengzhou City in the future is evaluated.And the security situation and its trend are obtained and the outstanding issues of Zhengzhou City are pointed out..The integrated schemes are put forward to improve the regional agricultural water security.By the scenario analysis,an optimal scheme is obtained to improve the agricultural water security of Zhengzhou City in the near future.