我国国内旅游人均消费与国民人均GDP之间关系的实证研究

Empirical research on the relationship between domestic tourism per-capita consumption and national per-capita GDP of our country

我国国内旅游的人均消费对国民人均GDP有着密切的依存关系,研究这种关系对于我国制订合理的国内旅游发展规划、开发具有民族特色和地方特色的旅游产品,有针对性地进行旅游市场营销,促进我国国内旅游发展具有重大的意义。本文拟以国家统计局所提供的官方数据为依据,通过建立计量经济学模型来得出我国国内旅游人均消费与国民人均GDP之间存在极强的相关关系和相应的回归模型;同时可以从1999年东南亚经济危机和2002年SARS对我国国内旅游发展的影响证明旅游业具有脆弱性和敏感性的特点,以及我国国内旅游发展的临界点为1000美元的结论;最后还可以应用此模型对我国国内未来的旅游消费进行预测,为制定未来的旅游消费政策提供理论依据。

There is close interdependent relationship between the domestic tourism per-capita consumption and the national per-capita GDP. It is quite meaningful to make the reasonable plan for the domestic tourism development, to develop the tourism products with national and local characteristics, to carry out the tourism marketing pertinently and to promote the domestic tourism development. The author establishes the econometrics model to study the relationship and draw other conclusions based on official data, which is useful for the government decision-makers to guide tourism consumption.