基于支持向量机的城市私人汽车保有量滚动预测

An Impoved Prediction Model for the Stock of Urban Private Cars Based on Support Vector Machine

针对城市私人汽车保有量增长预测问题,在对支持向量机理论进行改进的基础上,进行滚动预测研究。在对已有的机动车保有量预测模型进行对比分析的基础上,建立了基于支持向量机的私人汽车保有量滚动预测模型,并利用北京市私家车保有量历史数据对滚动预测模型进行了实证分析。结果表明该预测模型具有较高的预测精度、符合实际需求、具有广泛的应用前景。

with stock of urban private cars increasing rapidly,the traffic congestion and pollution problems become worse and worse.In view of this,we attempt to propose an impoved prediction approach on the basis of Support Vector Machine theory.After the literature review of prediction models for vehicle stock,this paper put forwad an innovative prediction model for private car stock based on support vector machine（SVM）.Then the model is verified using the private car stock data of Beijing.Finally,the results show that this prediction model can achieve higher accuracy.