新兴市场国家货币政策问题研究

On Monetary Policy Issues in Emerging Market Economies

随着金融全球化日益深化,新兴市场国家融入国际金融市场的程度不断加深,新兴市场国应当警惕资本流动给货币政策带来的挑战,重视由资本项目开放程度加大而引发的现象,如资本流动的强顺周期性、资本逆转、债务美元化等,给新兴市场国的货币政策选择带来的困难和约束。如何结合这些特有的经济现象来研究新兴市场国的货币政策问题,这已经超出了传统货币政策理论的能力范围,要求有更为合适的货币政策分析框架的构建和运用。本文提出新近出现的开放经济的金融加速器模型是新兴市场国货币政策框架的合适选择,并提出了运用此框架所应当注意的问题。

With the deepening of financial globalization and the increasing degree of emerging markets＂ integra- tion into international financial market, emerging markets should be alert to challenges for monetary policy stemming from capital flows. Several special phenomena brought by the opening up of capital account call for careful attention, such as strong pro-cyclical nature of capital flow, capital reverse, and the dollarization of liability, for they impose difficulties and restrictions on the choice of monetary policy in emerging markets. How to take these economic phe- nomena into account when studying monetary policy in emerging markets has been far beyond the reach of traditional monetary theory. It demands the construction and application of more appropriate theory framework. The paper argues that recently emerged model of financial accelerator is a suitable choice as monetary policy framework for emerging markets, and also points out the problems we should pay attention in the application.