辽宁阜新地区降水特征变化及农业旱涝趋势分析

Precipitation Variation and Trend Analysis of Agricultural Drought and Flood in Fuxin of Liaoning Province

[目的]研究降水特征和干旱趋势变化,为地方农业经济发展、农业结构调整服务。[方法]采用气候倾向率和干湿指数分析方法。[结果]近48年,阜新地区降水量、降水日数在减少,导致干旱频率增加,尤其经过2次连年干旱之后更加明显;年降水量趋势减少68mm;农作物生长季降水量趋势减少77mm;≥0.1、≥5.0、≥10.0mm降水日数趋势减少分别为11.8、3.3和0.8d。干湿指数K值趋势下降0.197,农作物生长季干旱频率增加23.4%,播种出苗阶段中旱频率增加20.0%,作物旺盛生长阶段轻旱频率增加20.5%,成熟收获期中旱频率增加32.2%。

[Objective]Characteristics of precipitation and drought trends are studies so as to serve local agricultural economic development and agricultural restructuring.[Method]The climate tendency rate as well as dry and wet index method is adopted.[Result] In recent 48a,the precipitation amount and precipitation days are reducing,resulting in increasing frequency of drought,which becomes serious especially after two successive years of drought.The annual precipitation reduces by 68 mm,and the precipitation during the growth season of agricultural crops reduces by 77 mm;the days with ≥ 0.1 mm,≥ 5.0 mm,≥ 10.0 mm precipitation reduce by 11.8 days,3.3 days and 0.8 days respectively;the dry index K value drops by 0.197,the frequency of drought increases by 23.4% during the growth season of agricultural products,the frequency of middle-level drought increases by 20.0% during the seed germination stage,the frequency of light drought increases by 20.5% during the vigorous growth stage,and the frequency of middle-level drought increases by 32.2% during the maturity stage.