基于VAR模型对湖北省经济增长与环境污染关系的实证研究

VAR model based on economic growth and environmental pollution in Hubei province empirical study

选取1998～2008年间湖北省3个环境污染指标与经济增长指标,并以此建立向量自回归模型(VAR),然后应用VAR模型考察了湖北省经济增长与环境污染在时序维度上的相互影响机制和动态关联效应。结果表明,一方面,经济增长是影响湖北省污染排放量变化的重要原因,另一方面工业烟尘、工业SO2、工业粉尘排放量的增加对经济增长也存在着反作用力。经济增长指标对解释环境污染指标排放的预测方差分解的贡献度较高,环境污染指标排放对经济增长指标的预测方差的解释贡献度较小。

Choose from 1998-2008 in Hubei three environmental indicators and economic growth indicators ,and thus the establishment of vector autoregressive （VAR）, and then apply the VAR model to research the economic growth and environmental pollution in Hubei Province in the temporal dimension of interaction mechanism and dynamic correlation effects.The results showed that, on the one hand, economic growth is the impact of pollution in Hubei Province, an important reason for changes in emissions, other industrial dust, industrial SO2, industrial dust emissions to increase economic growth there is reaction.Indicators of economic growth indicators of environmental pollution emissions to explain variance decomposition of the contribution of higher pollution emissions on economic growth indicators of the predictive contribution of smaller variance explained.