城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距——基于SVAR模型的研究

Urbanization,Industrialization and Urban-rural Income Disparity——A Research Based on the SVAR Model

笔者运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法,对中国1978年～2008年城市化、工业化与城乡收入差距的关系做出实证研究。结果表明:发现城市化的发展在短期内扩大了城乡收入差距,但这种不利影响在长期来看将逐步消失,而工业化的发展在短期内也扩大了城乡收入差距,但长期来说工业化的这种负面影响也将逐渐减弱,最终将反过来缩小城乡收入差距。

The author makes an empirical study of the relationship between urbanization,industrialization and urban-rural income disparity in China between 1978 and 2008 with the SVAR model.The results show that the development of urbanization expands urban-rural income disparity in the short term,but this negative effect will disappear in the long term,and the development of industrialization expands urban-rural income disparity in the short term,too,but this negative effect will decline in the long term and will narrow urban-rural income disparity in the end.