基于有序logistic模型的企业供应链融资风险预警研究

A Research into the Risk Early-warning of Enterprise Supply Chain Financing Based on Ordered Logistic Model

供应链融资中的企业信用违约风险主要来自于融资企业自身、运作项目、核心企业、产品供应链等诸多融资参与对象。笔者采用有序多分类logistic模型,建立了企业供应链融资信用违约概率模型,并提出了不同等级的信用违约概率估计方法。基于违约贡献度,建立了企业信用违约风险预警模型,设计并详细说明了风险预警流程,通过实证举例,论证了预警模型的可行性,为企业风险预警研究提供了新的研究思路。

Enterprise credit default risk in supply chain financing mainly stems from such financing participants as the financing enterprises themselves,the project in operation,the core enterprises,and the product supply chain etc.By adopting the ordered logistic regression model,the author builds a model evaluating credit default probability in supply chain financing,and puts forward the methods of measuring the credit default probability at different scales.Based on default extents,the author also builds a risk early-warning model for enterprise credit default,devises and expounds the procedure of the risk early-warning and demonstrates the feasibility of the early-warning model with empirical evidence,and provides a new approach to enterprise risk early-warning.