本币升值影响外汇储备的实证分析:2003～2007

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Currency Appreciation on Foreign Exchange Reserves:2003～2007

本文以2003～2007年13个国家为研究对象,研究了不同国家本币升值对外汇储备的影响。面板数据的实证结果表明,汇率波动在一定程度上决定了一国外汇储备的规模,本币升值是导致2002年以后新兴市场国家外汇储备快速增长的重要因素,本币升值幅度与外汇储备的增幅成反比。我们认为,外汇储备管理应从控制供给入手,有效控制外汇储备规模。而央行减少对汇率的干预,并逐步推进人民币国际化是有效降低过多外汇储备的重要手段。

This paper studies the impact of currency appreciation on the foreign exchange reserves in 13 countries between 2003 and 2007. The empirical results of panel data show the followings: Exchange rate volatility determines to a certain extent the size of a country's foreign exchange reserves. Currency appreciation is an important factor in fast-growing foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets since 2002. The rate of currency appreciation is inversely proportional to the increase in foreign exchange reserves. We hold that in reserve management the size of foreign exchange reserves should be controlled by effectively controlling their supplies. To reduce the central bank intervention on the exchange rate and gradually push forward RMB internationalization are the important and effective means to reduce excessive foreign exchange reserves.