中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

The Effect of Sino-U.S.Trade on U.S.Employments:An Analysis based on U.S. Manufacturing Panel Data

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。

We develop a theory model of employment impacted by international trade, and then we use this model to analyze the effect of Sino-US trade on American employment. Using U.S. manufacturing panel data, we find that U.S. import manufactures from China has not significant effects on U.S. employments and it is not U.S. unemployment′s Granger cause, U.S. export manufactures to China has little effects on employments, too. In fact, the main effects of U.S. employments are American real wages, firms′ developments and so on. These finds explain that China export manufactures to U.S. does not cause American unemployment, and U.S. decreases imports from China can not solve its unemployment problems.