基于分区异步元胞自动机模型的耕地利用布局优化——以武汉城市圈为例

Interregional Farmland Layout Optimization Model Based on the Partition Asynchronous Cellular Automata:A Case Study of the Wuhan City Circle

以武汉城市圈为例,根据城市圈内各县域社会经济发展对土地资源需求的区域差异,探讨分区异步元胞自动机模型在耕地利用布局优化中的应用。模型根据各县域建设用地需求优先度确定异步演化速率,根据各县域土地利用变化的规律结合粮食自给率和建设用地满足程度确定分区转换规则,根据全区域的粮食安全得到全局终止条件,以此实现武汉城市圈2020年耕地利用优化布局。优化结果显示,在武汉城市圈耕地总量满足全区域粮食安全的基础上,黄陂区、应城市、新洲区、汉阳区、潜江市、黄冈市市辖区、鄂州市市辖区、孝感市市辖区、武昌区、仙桃市、黄梅县、武穴市、阳新县、咸宁市市辖区和赤壁市等建设用地优先度较高的区域建设用地需求均得到了满足;团风县和通城县虽然建设用地优先度较低,但是建设用地需求量较小,建设用地需求也得到了满足;其他县(市、区)由于建设用地需求量和建设用地优先度之间存在一定的矛盾,建设用地需求量没有得到完全满足。结果表明,基于分区异步元胞自动机的耕地区际优化模型在全区域耕地保护和粮食安全的基础上,考虑了社会经济发展对建设用地需求的区域差异,能够协调建设用地和耕地之间的矛盾,实现在区域间合理配置建设用地和耕地保护指标。

Taking Wuhan City Circle as a case,this paper discussed the application of the regional partition asyn-chronous cellular automata model in the layout optimization of cultivated lands according to the regional heterogeneity of the socio-economic development in the counties in the Wuhan City Circle.The model determined the asynchronous evolution rate according to the construction land demand priority of the counties,set up the regional conversion rules according to the laws of land use change,food self supporting capacity and satisfied degree of construction land demand of the counties,and determined the overall and regional ultimate arrangements according to the food safety of the whole region and the construction land demand of each county,so as to realize the layout optimization of cultivated land use of the Wuhan City Circle in 2020.The optimization result indi-cates that the total quantity of the cultivated land in the Wuhan City Circle can meet the demands of the food safety of the whole region.The construction land demand can be met in the regions with higher construction land demand priority degrees,including the districts in Huangpi District,Yingcheng City,Xinzhou District,Hanyang District,Qianjinag City,Huanggang City,Ezhou City,Xiaogan City,Wuchang District,Xiantao City, Huangmei county,Wuxue City,Yangxi County,Xianning City and Chibi City.The construction land demand priority degree is relatively low in Tuanfeng and Tongcheng counties,but the construction land demand is smaller, and thus the construction land demand can also be met in these regions.In other counties（or cities,districts）,the construction land demand is not fully met due to the conflicts between the construction land demand and the con-struction land demand priority degree.The result indicates that the regional cultivated land layout optimization based on the partition asynchronous cellular automata model.which considers the heterogeneity of demand for construction land on the basis of cultivated land protection and food safety of the whole region,can coordinate the relations between food safety and economic development and set up a reasonable configuration of construction land layout and cultivated land protection.