沪港双城记:基于引力模型的实证分析

A Tale of Two Cities of China:Empirical Analysis based on Gravity Model

本文利用引力模型计量了上海和香港与国内省级经济区的相互引力和相对引力,结果发现,上海在大多数地区的经济联系程度超过香港,并有加速扩张的趋势,具有明显的规模和区位优势;香港在金融、航运和现代服务业方面对中南部和西部地区仍然具有较大的影响,具有先发优势;两地的竞争态势愈加明显。由此可见,上海和香港作为中国经济发展的两大中心城市,需要加强协调与合作,避免恶性竞争。

This paper calculates the economic gravity coefficients between Shanghai and Hong Kong with the other provincial districts in China using the Gravity Model.It reveals that Shanghai would exceed Hong Kong in the economic relationship with the almost other provincial districts,that derived from the advantages of scale effect and location effect of Shanghai.However,Hong Kong could be still dominating the economic reaction especially in service industries in South-and West-China for its advantage of early-development.