货币政策透明度与政策有效性:基于利率期限结构预期理论的检验

Monetary Policy Transparency and Policy Efficiency:An Analysis Based on Expectation Theory of the Term Structure

利用我国同业拆借市场的实际利率数据,通过检验同业拆借利率对利率期限结构预期假设的接受程度,对货币政策透明度与政策有效性之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,提高货币政策透明度更有利于引导市场预期和形成稳定合理的利率期限结构,从而保障货币政策的顺利传导乃至政策调控的有效性。

The expectations theory of the term structure of CHIBOR is analyzed for explaining the relationship of monetary policy transparency and policy efficiency.The result shows that the expectation hypothesis performed better along with the increased monetary policy transparency;moreover,the preferable term structure of interest rate should help monetary policy transmit more effectively.The conclusions are consistent with the view that open disclosure of central bank will increase the efficiency of the monetary policy.