基于弹性模型的供应链风险响应分析

Analyzing Supply Chain Risk Response Based on Resilience Model

供应链弹性是系统的一种基本属性,它直接影响着整个供应链系统的核心竞争力。基于供应链风险弹性分析方法,构建了描述供应链弹性系统形变的数学模型,研究在风险冲击作用下供应链系统粘弹性变形值随时间的变化规律。在此基础上,进一步分析供应链系统在风险加载与卸载作用的响应行为以及供应链系统崩溃的临界状态,为供应链弹性研究提供了一种新颖而有效的方法。最后,通过Matlab仿真软件对理论分析结果进行仿真验证。研究结果表明:由供应链弹性驱动的系统形变是一个动态涨落、破坏成长的过程,需要供应链成员共同塑造供应链弹性,控制系统形变,才能获得供应链竞争优势的持续性增长。

Supply chain resilience is a basic attribute,and affects the core competence of the whole supply chain system.In this paper,based on the supply chain risk resilience analysis method,it built a mathematical model of supply chain resilient system,and researched the changing rules of supply chain system resilience deformation when the time changing under the impact of risk.Moreover, it analyzed the system response when risk stroked the supply chain and was eliminated,and the critical state of supply chain system disruption.It provides a novelty and effective way for supply chain resilience research.At last,it carried out simulation on the theoretic analysis by Matlab.The results show that,the system deformation driven by supply chain resilience is a dynamic fluctuating and destructive growing process.Only when the supply chain members strive together,and shape the supply chain resilience,the competitive advantages of supply chain can get sustainable growth.