考虑时变效应的水工金属结构安全风险评价模型

Safety risk assessment model of hydraulic metal structures considering time-varying effect

为了对水工金属结构进行安全风险评价,针对传统安全系数法的缺陷,采用模糊聚合和可靠度法,建立基于时变可靠度理论的单目标、多层次水工金属结构安全风险评价数学模型,并采用Delphi,Fortran语言和ANSYS软件混合编程实现.工程实例应用分析表明:该安全风险评价数学模型较之传统安全系数法更加科学、合理,实际评价过程更加简单、快捷和实用,可为水工金属结构的安全风险评价和水电站除险加固提供参考.

In order to evaluate the safety risk of hydraulic metal structures,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process （AHP） and the reliability method were employed with regard to the defects in the factor of safety method.Based on time-varying reliability theory,a hierarchical safety risk assessment mathematical model for hydraulic metal structures was established.It could be achieved by use of the mixed language programming of Delphi,Fortran and ANSYS.The assessment results of engineering cases show that the proposed safety risk assessment model is more scientific and reasonable than the traditional factor of safety method,and the assessment process is simple,quick and practical.It can be used for the safety risk assessment of hydraulic metal structures and the rehabilitation of hydropower stations.