基于VaR的我国煤炭行业金融安全影响因素分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of Financial Safety in Coal Industry Based on VaR Model

从金融科学、安全科学角度,提出煤炭行业金融安全的定义,认为煤炭企业融资和投资过程中的金融安全管理是我国能源安全的重要保证。可以从宏观经济状况、融资状况和投资条件3个方面分析影响煤炭行业金融安全的因素。采用金融安全管理中的VaR风险估价方法将煤炭行业金融安全影响指标进行定量化描述,运用Eviews软件构建误差修正模型分析各个影响指标与煤炭行业金融安全之间的长期、短期经济关系,明确二者之间的影响机制。CPI、资金成本率和借款率对煤炭行业金融安全的短期波动有影响;从长期来看,GDP、资金成本率和借款率指标与煤炭金融安全有着正相关关系,CPI、资产负债率和汇率与煤炭金融安全有着负相关关系。

From the view of finance science and safety science, the definition of coal financial safety management is put forward. It is considered that coal financial safety management in the process of finan- cing and investment is an important guarantee for energy safety, and the factors affecting coal financial safety can be analyzed from the three aspects of macroeconomic environment, financing situation and in- vestment conditions. The VaR model in financial safety management is used to quantify the factors, and the Eviews software is used to construct an error correction model （ECM） to analyze the long-term and short-term economic relations between the affecting factors and the coal industry financial safety as well as their affecting mechanism. It shows that CPI, fund cost rates and loan rates can cause a short-term fluctua- tion on coal financial safety. From the view of the long-term economic relations, GDP, fund cost rates and loan rates have a positive correlation with coal financial safety, and CPI, debt ratio and exchange rate have a negative correlation with coal financial safety.