青岛邮船产业的客源规模及经济效益预测

Passenger quantity and economic effect prediction for cruise industry of Qingdao

为合理估算青岛邮船产业经济效应,运用自回归积分移动平均(Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average,ARIMA)法与经验预测相结合的方法,对青岛2010─2020年重要时间节点的客源规模进行预测;利用预测数据分析青岛邮船产业经济效益.得出结论:2010—2020年青岛邮船产业的重点应放在国际邮船上;青岛应联合国际邮船公司,共同寻求"多港挂靠"政策的支持,吸引目前以上海和天津作为母港的国际邮船挂靠.

To estimate economic effect for cruise industry of Qingdao reasonably,the Autoregressive Inte-grated Moving Average（ARIMA） and the empirical prediction is adopted to predict the passenger quantity of Qingdao at some important time points in 2010—2020,and then the prediction result is used to analyze the economic effect of Qingdao’s cruise industry.The results show that Qingdao’s cruise in-dustry should put emphasis on international cruise indurstry in 2010—2020;Qingdao should find alli-ances with international cruise lines to seek the support of multiport calling policy jointly,and attract the cruise ships which currently choose Shanghai or Tianjin as home port to call at Qingdao.