基于希金斯可持续成长模型的企业财务危机预警实证研究

An empirical study of enterprise financial distress prediction based on Higgins’s sustainable development model

基于2003年至2007年中国A股市场新增ST公司样本及配对样本的前三年数据,本文对Higgins模型综合指标进行单变量分析,证实了该模型的预警可行性;然后根据四项因素驱动指标分别运用多元判别、逻辑回归、神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机方法建立预警模型进行回判和外推,以考察希金斯可持续成长模型是否能够用于企业财务危机预警。研究表明,四项因素驱动指标在ST前两年具有较高的分类准确性,Higgins模型能够为开发标准化预警指标体系提供参考。

This paper studies whether Higgins’s sustainable development model can be used for early warning of financial distress.Based on the univariate analysis,the feasibility of the model is verified.Then an empirical study is made according to the four driving indexes deduced by Higgins’s model by using the four dominating methods of multivariate discrimination,logistic regression,neural network and least squares support vector machine.The result shows the four driving indexes have good classification abilities in the first two years and Higgins’s model can be used to develop a standardized early warning index system.