天津盘山矿泉水资源优化配置的系统动力学模型

Optimal allocation of mineral water resources based on the system dynamic (SD) model

针对天津蓟县盘山矿泉水资源分配不合理现状,在分析矿泉水赋存的地质环境条件基础上,采用系统动力学模型(SD),设计了维持现状(方案1)、重矿泉水(方案2)、节水治理(方案3)及综合管理(方案4)等4种水资源配置方案。结果表明:方案1和方案2以消耗自然资源为代价,没有体现生态效益,且经济效益不突出,为不可取方案;方案3引入节水技术及污水治理等措施,体现良好的生态效益,同时经济效益又分别是前二者的1.6倍和1.2倍,是可选方案;方案4调整了区内产业用水结构,通过引入外部水源替换生活用水,提高矿泉水生产量,经济效益是方案3的1.5倍,同时具有较高的生态效益。因此,从社会、经济和生态综合效益分析,选定综合管理方案(方案4)为研究区水资源优化的最佳配置方案。

According to the distribution of mineral drinking water resources at Pan Mountain in Ji County near Tianjing, and based on analysis of the geo-environmental condition of storage of mineral water, four schemes of water resource allocation were designed using the system dynamic （SD） model： maintaining the present status （scheme one）, mineral water （scheme two）, water saving and control （scheme three）, and integrated management （scheme four）. The results showed that schemes one and two were not acceptable for their lesser ecological and economic efficiency. Scheme three, meanwhile, introducing water saving techniques and wastewater treatment, was an acceptable scheme because of its better ecological and economic efficiencies. The economic benefit was 1.6 and 1.2 times higher than schemes one and two, respectively. The optimal scheme was scheme four, which had greater economical efficiency （1.5 times higher than scheme three） and the same ecological efficiency as scheme three due to regulation of the structure of industrial water utilization, replacing domestic water by introducing external water sources and increasing production of mineral water. Therefore, the integrated management scheme （scheme four） was the best scheme of water resources allocation in the study area.