基于改进层次分析法和可拓学理论对泥石流危险度的分析

Analysis of Debris flow Hazard Based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process and Extenics Theory

通过粗糙集理论对层次分析法进行改进,降低了权重确定中的人为因素的干扰,并通过可拓学理论解决泥石流系统的模糊性与危险度评价的确定性之间的矛盾,将评价因子与标准之间的关系发展到因子与标准之间的距离,定量化的描述出研究目标的特性。建立了一套新的泥石流危险度评价系统。根据对算例的计算,计算结果与实际情况一致,验证了该方法的科学性和实用性。

The analytic hierarchy process is improved by rough set theory to reduce the interference of human factor when determining the weights. Then the extenics theory is used to resolve the contradiction between the uncertainty of mud-rock flow system and the certainty of the system, and the relationship of evaluation factors and criteria is extended to the distances between them, which could describe the quantitative characteristics of the debris flow system. At the same time, a new system for evaluating the debris flow hazard is established. According to the calculation for examples, the results fit with the actual situations, which could prove the scientific and practical nature of this method.