金融危机再解读:逻辑演绎与经验归纳

Reinterpretation of the Financial Crisis:Analysis of Marx's Theory of the Economic Cycle

2007年次贷危机爆发,并由此蔓延为一次金融危机,但本质上依旧是有效需求不足和过度供给之间矛盾的爆发,只是在全球化的背景下具有了新的特点。信用工具的扩张即金融创新只是加剧了危机的烈度,并不是危机的根源,最多是诱发因素。次贷危机实际是发达国家总需求管理政策失败的一个表现,即经济的结构性问题不解决,传统的宏观经济政策工具,尤其是货币政策工具,只是拖延了危机爆发的时间。这个结论对我国经济结构调整和长期发展具有显著的警示意义。

As a stage of cyclical fluctuation of economy,＇ the subprime crisis happened has its internal mechanism and inevitability. The crisis start from 2007, present some new characteristics under globalizafiun, it is conflict between the shortage of effective demand and excessive supply in essence. The substantial of the subprime crisis is the failure of the gross demand management policy in developed countries. If the structural problems can not be solved, the traditional macroeconomic policy tools, especially monetary policy tools, can only to postpone the outbreak of the crisis. This conclusion has significant warning meanings for our nation＇ s economic structure adjustment and long- term development.