房价和地价相互关系的实证分析——基于上海、南京、杭州、宁波数据的检验

A Positive Analysis of the Relationship between Housing Prices and Land Prices Based on Data Test from Shanghai,Nanjing, Hangzhou,and Ningbo

通过对上海、南京、杭州和宁波房价和地价进行Granger检验,其结论是:上海市和杭州市房价和地价在长期内均衡稳定互为因果关系,但是,短期内上海房价与地价因果关系不明显。南京市、宁波市房价和地价则在长期内不均衡稳定,即无因果关系,而短期内杭州、南京、宁波房价均是地价变化的原因,地价却不是房价变化的原因。在短期内,四座城市地价变动均不是房价变动的原因,而主要因素应该是投机和外来购房群体等因素可能是推动房价迅猛上涨,即"需求拉动型"的作用更加明显。

Granger testing on housing and land prices of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Ningbo shows that the housing and land prices of Shanghai and Hangzhou are stable, balanced, and mutually causal for a long run, but the causal relationship is not obvious between the housing and land prices of Shanghai for a short term. The housing and land prices of Nanjing and Ningbo are not balaneod and stable for a long term, namely, there is no causal relationship, in a short period the housing prices of Hangzhou, Nanjing and Ningbo determine the land prices while the land prices do not dominate the housing prices. For a short time, the soaring housing prices are detea＇mined by speculation and nonnative house buyers not by the land prices of the four cities, that is, demand-pull role is more obvious.