关于我国政府投资乘数效应的探讨

A Discussion on China's Government Investment Multiplier Effect

应对金融危机的4万亿政府投资计划目前到了收尾盘点阶段,如此规模的政府投资除了满足社会公共品需要外,其对经济发展的影响方向和影响程度如何是大众关心的重要问题,因而关于政府投资对经济增长的影响的研究有很大的现实意义。政府投资乘数大小作为衡量政府投资效果的重要依据和基本工具,对其进行具体研究有利于增强和改进政府投资对经济增长所带来的影响。通过单位根检验、协整分析等路径并运用生产函数法对1998年以来我国政府投资乘数效应进行了实证分析,结果显示,政府投资对经济增长有较大的拉动作用,但同时也发现政府投资产出弹性小于非政府投资的产出弹性,在一定范围内同等数量政府投资对经济增长的贡献度低于非政府投资。

By the unit root test, co-integration analysis and production function method of government investment, we have carried out an empirical analysis of government investment multiplier effect in China since 1998. The result shows that government investment on economic growth can exercise a great stimulating effect. But it is also found that the output elasticity of government investment is less than that of non-government investment. Within a certain range, government investment contributes less to economic growth than nongovernment investment on the same amount.