高频率干旱对仁寿县水稻产量的影响

Study on the Effect of High Frequency Drought on the Yield of Rice(Oryza sativa)in Renshou County

干旱是限制水稻作物产量的主要生态因子之一,仁寿县作为十年九旱的农业大县,水稻生长经常发生缺水现象,研究水稻产量受干旱胁迫的影响对粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。以岗优21为分析对象,收集1990—2008年水稻产量及同时段5—7月积温、日照、蒸发、降水等气象要素,利用SPSS10.0中的逐步回归法(Stepwise)建立水稻产量和各气象要素间的回归模型。根据SPSS10.0中的逐步回归法,把变量的选择和剔除标准分别设为0.15和0.20,根据标准选择进入回归方程的变量,包括5月的积温总数、5月和6月的日照总时数、5月的蒸发总量和7月的降水总量,建立了相应的回归模型。建立的回归方程取得了较好的拟合效果,可以作为水稻产量的估测模型使用。

Drought is one of the most important ecological factors affecting yield and quality of riee（Oryza sativa）.Renshou County is a high frequency drought agricultural county.So,study on the effect of high frequency drought on the yield of rice is of important significance.This paper was based on the research of Gangyou 21 variety in high frequency drought situation in Renshou County. The yield of rice and four meteorological factors （accumulated temperature, sunshine, evaporation, and precipitation ）were analyzed in May ,June, and July from 1990 to 2008. The regression model of rice yield and meteorological factors was established on the supports of SPSS10.0.According to the stepwise regression SPSS10.0,the variable selection and exclusion criteria was set to 0.15 and 0.20,respectively.Regression model was established based on the accumulated temperature in May ,the total number of hours of sunshine in May and June,the total evaporation in May, and the total precipitation in July.The regression equation established had a better fitting effect, which could he used as rice yield estimation model.