美国强对流预报主观产品现状分析

New Developments on Subjective Operational Products of the American National-Level Severe Convective Weather Prediction

为了全面反映美国强对流预报主观产品现状,同时也为推进我国国家级强对流天气预报业务建设提供思路,通过研读相关文献、最新技术报告和专家咨询等方式,对当前美国国家级强对流天气预报业务的产品类型、制作、发布规范等最新进展进行了比较详细的分析,并对我国国家级强对流天气预报业务建设提出了初步设想。通过分析看到,美国的强对流预报业务产品,以概率分类预报为主要形式,是以预报员为主体的综合主观预报产品。现已形成了一个比较系统的短时、短期、中期预报业务产品系列。以其为参照,我国强对流预报业务发展须加强四个方面的工作:第一,强对流天气气候学分析、诊断技术的研究应用;第二,基于高时空分辨率的中尺度数值预报系统的客观产品的研发和应用,强对流分类预报方法的研制;第三,专门预报员队伍的建设;第四,科学的业务流程和高效的综合监测传输。

To reflect the situation of American national-level subjective operational products of severe con-vective weather prediction and provide the reference to the CMA（China Meteorological Adiministration） severe weather prediction operations,the newest developments of American national-level subjective operational products of severe convective weather prediction（its products,generation and issuance regulation） were analyzed.Some proposals were put forward to the further development of CMA severe weather prediction operations.The conclusion could be drawn through the analysis that American national-level subjective operational products of severe convective weather prediction mainly are the classified probability forecasts.They have been formed a systemic product series of short-time,short-term and medium-term forecasts now.By using of contrast,CMA severe weather prediction operations should strengthen their work in these four respects as follows.First,the application of climatology,meteorology,analysis technology and diagnosis technology of severe convective weather.Second,investigations of the forecast methods and mesoscale numerical forecast products which are based on the high resolution of time and space scales.Third,construct a steadily special team.The last is the scientific operation flow and efficient transportation of integrated monitoring.