2010年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

The Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2010

为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2010年6—8月T639模式进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:3家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式稍差,稳定性不如ECMWF模式;对1003号台风灿都(CHANTHU)的路径及强度预报,3家模式的预报效果均不理想,ECMWF模式对其登陆前的预报与零场较接近,而T639模式及日本模式预报相对较差。

In order to improve the application ability to T639 model,a synoptic verification on its medium-range forecasting（96 h leading time） during the summer of 2010 was made in comparison with the counterparts of models of ECMWF and Japan.The results show that the three models all have good performance on predicting the large-scale circulation evolution and adjustment over Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole,ECMWF is the best at forecasting synoptic systems and elements among all models;The three models have a bigger error on prediction of the track and intensity of typhoon Chanthu except that ECMWF performs well before typhoon landing.