电网建设外部环境中利益群体博弈关系仿真分析

Simulation analysis on the game of interest groups in the external environment of power grid construction

目前电网建设政策处理难度加大,导致电网建设发展缓慢,并严重制约了经济发展。基于复杂自适应系统理论,采用经济学仿真的方法构建了基于讨价还价的三方谈判模型。再现了电网公司、基层组织及当地居民三方在电网建设政策处理过程中的行为特征。基于电网建设政策处理的约束,分析了博弈三方对谈判成本的敏感度及其对三方决策行为的影响。认为越早达成协议,则谈判的沉淀成本就越小,从而造成冲突升级的概率变小。研究从理论与方法上为设计冲突互适应机制奠定了基础。

At present, the difficulty of dealing with construction of power grids is gradually increasing. Therefore, it results in slow development of power grid construction and seriously hampers economic development. Based on complexity adaptive system theory and using economics simulation methods, the paper builds a tripartite negotiation model based on bargaining. It reveals the unique behavioral characteristics of the power grid companies, grass-roots organizations and local residents in the process of dealing with the power grid construction policies. Based on the constraints of the power grid construction policies, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of tripartite groups about the negotiation cost and its impact on the decision-making behavior. The view is that the sooner an agreement to negotiate is made the less cost will be paid, thus the smaller the probability of escalation of the conflict will be. The conclusion provides a convenient channel to design a mutual adaptation mechanism of conflict.