北京市汽车限行的环境和经济效益分析

The Environmental and Economic Benefits of Automotive Restrictions in Beijing

运用汽车全生命周期方法分析北京市车辆限行政策的环境和经济效益。结果显示,北京市限行具有微弱的环境资金,仍亏损83.43亿元/年,经济损失远远大于获得的环境效益。根据北京市新车增长的趋势,限行带来的环境和社会效益,温室气体减排量60.2万吨/年,相当于北京市2007年二氧化碳总排放量的0.4%,污染物减排量8.6万吨/年,其中减排CO 7.5万吨/年,减排NOx(NO2)0.9万吨/年,减排SOx(SO2)0.2万吨/年。按照碳交易价格和国内排污费征收标准折合成经济效益,也只相当于节省0.57亿元/年,但是该政策将造成直接经济损失84亿元/年。即使扣除环境效益节省的效益很快会被新增车辆抵消。因此认为,有效控制北京市汽车温室气体和污染物排放,不应该限制已有汽车的使用,而应该最大程度发挥现有汽车的使用。通过经济和政治手段,逐步限制新入户的汽车来抑制新增车辆,增加税收来加强污染防治与治理;通过完善公共交通体系和道路系统,满足用车需求和限制汽车保有量过快增长。

We examine the environmental and economic benefits of vehicle restrictions in Beijing using the full life cycle method.The results show that the vehicle restrictions in Beijing has weak environmental benefits that the greenhouse gas emission reductions is 602,000 tons per year,equivalent to 0.4% of total carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing in 2007,and pollutant emission reductions were 86,000 tons per year,of which CO emissions is 75,000 tons per year,and NOx（NO2） emissions is 9,000 tons per year,and SOx（SO2） emissions is 2,000 tons per year.Based on the carbon trading price and the levied standard of domestic sewage charges,we convert these environmental benefits into economic benefits,and only the equivalent of saving is 57 millions Yuan per year,but the policy results in direct economic losses of 8.4 billions Yuan per year.If we deducted saving money from environmental benefits,but still would be loss of 8.34 billions Yuan per year.As a result,an economic loss is far greater than the environmental benefits gained.According to the growth trend of new cars in Beijing,the environmental and social benefits of vehicles limited would soon be offset by new increasing vehicles.Therefore,we argue that with the greenhouse gases emissions of automobile of effective control in Beijing,the use of existing vehicles should not be restricted,but should be maximized.Firstly,we propose to gradually restrict the new-home cars through economic and political means;secondly,government departments may strengthen pollution prevention and control by increasing taxes;finally,we make suggestions to meet the car requirements and limit excessive growth of cars through the improvement of public transport system and road system.