1999年国内油品市场展望

Prospects for China's Oil Products Market in 1999

1998年国家就国内石油石化行业的发展出台了一系列政策和措施,使国内油品市场从总量过剩、库存爆满、无序竞争、价格下滑、石油石化企业亏损严重,转向了供求基本平衡、库存回落、南北联手保价、石油石化企业效益大幅度增加。与1997年相比,预计1998年国内原油和成品油的产量、进出口量,消费量等各项指标均有所下降,特别是成品油进口下降幅度较大,油品需求出现了10年来的首次下降。影响1999年国内油品市场走势的因素将主要表现在供需总量平衡及两大集团联手运作这两个方面。预计1999年国内市场成品油需求与1998年8600万吨的消费量相比不会大幅度增加。按总量控制的原则,国内原油加工总量仍应从紧安排,国家应做好准备采取一系列调控手段(如预备一定数量的进口原油和柴油指标),并密切注意市场动向,以便及时作出相应安排,确保国内市场供需相对稳定。

In 1998, the Chinese government instituted a series of policies and measures to promote the development of the country' s oil and petrochemical industries. As a result, the domestic oil products market has been transformed from a situation of oversupply, excessive oil stocks, disorderly competition, falling prices and heavy losses for oil producers to one of a rough balance between oil supply and demand, lower stocks and higher profitability. The production, import, export and consumption of domestic crude and oil products in 1998 are expected to be slightly lower than in the previous year. In particular, oil product imports registered a sharp drop, and the demand for domestic oil products eased off for the first time. The main factors to affect China' s oil products market in 1999 are likely to be the overall balance of supply and demand and the joint operation of CNPC and Sinopec. It is estimated that the demand for major oil products in the Chinese market in 1999 will show little increase from 1998' s 86 Mt. According to the macro-control guideline, a strict plan should be drawn up for domestic processed crude, while the government should arm itself with appropriate means of adjustment and control, such as reserving some of the import quota of crude and oil products, paying close attention to market trends as an aid to decision-making and guaranteeing the stability of the domestic oil market.