中国经济波动分析——基于传统凯恩斯主义IS-LM-PC模型的SVAR估计

China's Economic Fluctuation——A SVAR Analysis Based on the Traditional IS-LM-PC Model

运用传统凯恩斯主义的IS-LM-PC理论模型,用SVAR方法研究了中国经济波动问题。研究结果表明,短期内,总供给冲击和总需求冲击对实际产出和通货膨胀的影响方向符合IS-LM-PC模型的理论预测;实际产出主要受总需求冲击的影响,而通货膨胀受总供给冲击的影响较大;货币冲击通过影响实际利率影响实际产出,但货币冲击对实际产出和通货膨胀的影响不如总需求冲击和总供给冲击那么大。

This paper researches China＇s economic fluctuation based on a SVAR analysis of the Keynesianism IS-LM-PC model.The positive analysis indicates that the response of real GDP and inflation to the shocks of supply and demand is coincident with the prediction of the model in the short run.The shocks of supply have more impact on inflation,while the shocks of from demand have more impact on real GDP.The monetary shocks play a bit role on real GDP through real interest.