国际油价对进出口冲击的传导机制——基于人民币汇率视角的实证分析

The Mechanism between Crude Oil Price and Import-export

为解析国际原油价格变动对进出口冲击的传导机制,本文以人民币汇率为中介因素,建立误差修正模型和状态空间模型,对三者关系开展实证分析。结果表明:国际油价与中国进出口总额具有较强相关性但不存在直接的协整关系,引入实际汇率后三者之间存在一个长期的均衡关系;长期看国际油价与人民币汇率之间存在着均衡关系且呈同向变动态势,人民币汇率与出口负相关,与进口正相关;价格让渡、企业家预期等不确定因素是导致中国出口面对人民币升值不降反升的重要原因。上述结论对于促进国际贸易的协调发展不无启示。

In order to find the mechanism between crude oil price and import-export,this paper constructs VEC model and state-space model basing on the intermediary effects of exchange rate.Results of empirical analysis show that crude oil price is correlative with import-export,but it doesn’ t exist cointegration between them.There is a long-term cointegration relationship among crude oil price,RMB exchange rate and import-export.It also has a cointegration between crude oil price and RMB exchange rate.RMB exchange rate has negative correlation with export and positive correlation with import.Uncertain factors such as price demise and entrepreneur expect lead to the rise of export with the appreciation of RMB.In the end,some advices are discussed to the coordinative development of international trade.