基于实物期权的港口投资优化决策模型研究

Research on the port investment optimial decision-making model based on real options

中国港口投资理论与实践仍处于初级阶段,已经无法适应未来港口可持续发展的实际需要。本研究借助扩张型实物期权描述港口或有投资决策的柔性价值,建立了港口投资扩建综合价值函数模型,反映了港口投资的高度不确定性、港口投资追求或有收益最大化和港口阶段性投资特点,并以港口投资利润指数为目标对投资最优规模进行数值求解。最后运用算例进行实际分析,结果表明,该模型具有实际应用意义。

Chinese port investment theory and practice is still in the infancy,and are unable to adapt the actual needs of port sustainable development.The managerial flexibility involved in the contingent investment can be described and valued by expansive real options,an integrated value function model for the investment of port expansion is established,which reflects characteristics of the high degree uncertainty of port investment,in pursuit of maximum investment return,and port phased investment.The model is set up to calculate the optimal capacity with numerical techniques when the target investment return index of the port is mainly concerned.Finally,with a practical example,the results show that the model has the significantly practical applications.