基于CGE模型的中国能源效率回弹效应研究

The Research on China's Energy Efficiency Rebound Effect Based on CGE Model

一国在倡导提高能源效率的同时可能会导致能源效率回弹效应,即能源效率提高带来的能源节约会部分被新增加的能源需求抵消掉。本文通过构建能源效率影响下的可计算一般均衡模型,模拟不同能源种类能源效率提高4%对能源消费的影响。模拟结果显示,煤炭、石油和电力在七部门的加权平均能源效率回弹效应分别为32.17%、33.06%和32.28%,说明能源效率回弹效应在我国显著存在。

When one country advocates improving the energy efficiency, a new phenomenon named energy efficiency rebound effect may appear. That means the expected beneficial of energy saving from energy efficiency increase may partially be offset by the newly increased energy demand. Building the computable general equilibrium model, the paper stimulates the influence of various fuels in energy efficiency increasing by 4 percent on energy consumption. The results show that the size of rebound effect from the seven sectors on weighted average at 32.17% for coal, 33. 06% for oil and 32. 28% for electricity. It is reflected that the rebound effect does exist in the economy wide level in China.