CUSTA与NAFTA的贸易增长效应分析——基于时空数列模型的探讨

Analysis in CUSTA and NAFTA's Trade Growth Effects

本文以贸易地图与修正的时空数列模型来探讨美国、加拿大、墨西哥三国自1989年美加自由贸易区(CUSTA)成立至2005年间区域内各国进口贸易量的变化,揭示CUSTA和NAFTA贸易增长效应的时空演变过程。结果发现,贸易地图和时空扩散函数可以解释北美经济一体化贸易增长效应的静态状况,并模拟出效应的动态演变过程;三群落间呈现的三种不同的效应变动趋势显示,经济与贸易环境的时空差异是北美经济一体化贸易增长效应在各国各商品部类间显现差异的主要原因。

In this paper, trade map and the spatial time series model are adopted to investigate the changes in United States, Canada and Mexico＇s imports from the year 1989 to 2006, in order to reveal the space evolution of the trade growth effects. The results showed that, the trade map and the space - time spread function can explain the static condition of trade growth effects in North America Economic Integration, and can simulate the dynamic evolution process of the effect. The three different trends of the effects showed in three groups display that the space - time differences in economic and trade environment may be the main reason of the difference of the trade growth effect of North American economic integration among different goods category and among different member countries.