基于风险的区域水安全评价模糊数随机模拟模型

Risk Based Regional Water Security Assessment Method Using Stochastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

针对用三角模糊数定量描述水安全系统各指标的风险等级和风险重要性的现有方法的运算尚不够严谨,实现过程较为复杂,所得综合风险评价值只是一实数值,没有指明综合风险评价值本身所具有的不确定性等问题,在基于系统脆弱性的区域水安全风险评价指标体系建立的基础上,采用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算,建立了基于三角模糊数随机模拟的水安全系统综合风险评价模型(RWSA-SSTFN)。研究表明,以置信区间形式表示的RWSA-SSTFN评价结果比现有常规方法在可靠性方面提供了更多信息,能反映受多种不确定性因素综合影响的水安全系统综合风险评价的客观实际情况;RWSA-SSTFN概念直观,方法简便通用,在具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性因素综合作用的各种资源环境安全系统综合风险评价问题中具有推广应用价值。

In order to resolve the problem of imprecise and complex operations of triangular fuzzy numbers for quantitatively describing the grade of risk and importance of risk of water security system by the existing method and the problem that its aggregative risk assessment result is only real number without determining the uncertainty of the assessment result,on the basis of the indexes system of water security risk assessment according to system vulnerability concept,Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers,and then an aggregative Risk based Water Security Assessment method using Stochastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Numbers,named RWSA-SSTFN,was established.The application results of RWSA-SSTFN showed that the assessment of RWSA-SSTFN expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods,which can reflect practical conditions of the aggregative risk assessment method for water security system,and that RWSA-SSTFN is intuitionistic,simple and general.RWSA-SSTFN can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different resource and environment security systems affected by many uncertainty factors such as randomness,fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information.