2020年中国造纸工业发展预测

A forecast to the development of China paperindustry in 2020

造纸工业是国家的原材料工业,中外历史的经验均已证明,造纸工业的发展基本是与国民经济发展同步的。到2020年,中国的经济实力将可能超过美国,成为世界第一大经济实体。那时中国的造纸工业如何呢?笔者预测2020年消费总量为2.0亿吨,人均消费154千克。能否实现这个消费总量?关键问题是能否提供足够的纤维原料。

Paper industry is a national raw material industry. It has been proved the development of paper industry almost keeps pace with economic g row th by the historical experiences of China and the foreign countries. By 2020, China will exceed USA to become the world’s first economic entity. What will China paper industry be at that time? It is predicted the total consumption for the paper and paperboard will be 140 million tons, per consumption will be 108kg by 2015; and by 2020, the total consumption will be 200 million tons, per consumption will be 154kg. Will this prediction come true? The key issue is if enough raw fiber material can be supplied.