守住18亿亩耕地“红线”的可行性分析——基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测结果的思考

Feasibility Analysis of Keeping up the "Red-line" of 1800 Million MU Cultivated Land:Consideration on Forecast Result Based on Grey Model GM(1,1)

随着我国经济发展和人口增长,人多地少的矛盾越来越突出,耕地面积越来越引起人们的重视。通过耕地面积与耕地保护力度的关系分析,利用灰色模型对我国的耕地面积进行了预测,分析了2020年守住18亿亩耕地的可能性。分析结果表明,2020年守住18亿亩耕地的任务十分艰巨,但不是没有可能性,关键是科学规划,落实并长期坚持最严格的耕地保护制度和最严格的节约用地制度。

With the economic development and population growth in China,the contradiction of Population excess and lands shortage is more and more prominent.More attention has been paid to the number of cultivated land.Through analyzing the relation between the area of cultivated land and the protective intensity,This study forecasts the number of China′s cultivated land and the possibility of holding 1800 million MU of cultivated land till the year of 2020 based on the grey model.The results show that it is a great task to hold 1800 million MU of cultivated land in 2020,but it is not impossible.The key approach is to scientifically plan and implement the most stringent farmland protection system and the most stringent land conservation system for a long time.