天山天池近49年气候变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Climate Change at Tianchi in Tianshan Mountains in Recent 49 Years

基于天山天池气象站1959～2007年的逐日地面气候资料,应用线性倾向估计、功率谱分析、滑动t检验及距平标准差对比分析等方法对天山天池气候变化特征进行了分析。分析表明:天山天池气候变化具有明显的多尺度振荡特征,并且具有明显的年际变化,年平均气温在1996年附近发生突变,降水未出现气候突变现象。气温和降水的变化和天山山区"暖湿型"变化趋势一致,最低气温的升高对天山天池增温贡献最大,最显著增湿趋势出现在春季和冬季,夏季降水量持平而雨日却减少,夏季极端强降水天气增加。

A study is conducted of the characteristics of climatic change at Tianchi in the Tianshan Mountains,based on the climatic statistic data of the Tianchi station in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2007,by means of the linear trend estimation,power spectrum analysis,the moving t test techniques,and anomaly standard deviation contrastive analysis.The results indicate that climatic change at Tianchi had obvious multi-range oscillation characteristic,and possessed obvious annual change;a sudden change of air temperature occurred around 1996,but there was no such a sudden change in precipitation.Air temperature and precipitation changes were in agreement with the warm-wet change pattern in the mountainous areas of the Tianshan Mountains.The minimum temperature increase contributed most greatly to the warming of Tianchi,and the most obvious humidity increase trend appeared in spring and winter;summer precipitation kept unchanged but the rainy days decreased.Extreme weather such as severe precipitation increased in summer.