PSA中人因失误模型化研究

Modeling of Human Errors in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

主要研究PSA模型如何考虑人因失误的影响,系统地提出如何在电厂系统模型中建立相对应的人因失误分析模型。利用事件树把系统故障和人因失误相结合的方法,探讨如何最大可能地真实描述事故后的操纵员行为,确定重要人因事件发展序列以及根据系统响应确定合理可分析的人因题头,建立完整的人因失误模型化的体系,并以实例说明具体分析过程。此项研究能够较好地描述硬件可靠性和人因可靠性之间的关联关系,降低HRA出力并满足PSA对于事故后人员行为的概率分析需求。

The paper mainly discusses how human errors are considered in a PSA（probabilistic safety assessment） model and how to build a corresponding human error analysis model in the system model of power plant.Through using the event tree method,which combines system failure with human errors,it is studied that how to represent a most realistic picture of post-accident behaviors,how to determine the development sequence of significant human factor events and build feasible and reasonable human error subjects,and how to construct a modeling system of human errors.At last,an application example is presented to demonstrate the analysis process of the modeling.This study can clarify the relationship between hardware reliability and human reliability,and thus reduce the resources needed for HRA and meet the probability demand required by PSA.