海西发展战略与固定资产投资需求分析

An Analysis on the Total Demand for Funds Based on the Development Strategy of the Western Coast of the Taiwan Strait

政府有关部门根据海峡西岸经济区发展战略制定了该区域近中远期的经济发展目标,以这些发展目标作为预测海西区域资金总需要的重要约束条件。利用变量的样本时间序列得出福建省全社会固定资产投资的预测模型,以2009年作为预测基期,得出纵向预测结果。同时,将其与先发地区进行横向比较,获得经验性的数据以对纵向预测结果进行修正,据此得出福建近中远期的全社会固定资产投资的预测值。

Based on the development strategy of the Western Coast of the Taiwan Strait, the relevant government departments establish the mid- and long-term economic development goals for the area, using these as an important constraint conditions to predict the total demand for funds. By employing the variable sample time series this thesis constructs the predicting model of the fixed asset investment in Fujian Province. And the vertical prediction results are obtained by utilizing the year of 2009 as a prediction base period. Then after a horizontal comparison with the developed areas, the empirical data are achieved to correct the prediction, and last the estimated value of the nid-term and long term fixed asset investment in Fujian Province is obatained.