多晶硅生产项目组合的系统动力学模型

System Dynamics Model of Polysilicon Production Project Portfolio

多晶硅广泛应用于半导体行业和太阳能光伏产业。随着太阳能光伏产业的迅猛发展,对太阳能级多晶硅的需求量大增,作为多晶硅的生产企业,如何规划多晶硅生产项目的生产规模成了一个棘手的问题。由于生产系统中需要考虑的因素很多,因素之间又相互关联,所以本文提出使用系统动力学理论方法,针对性建模。文章针对一个具体案例,首先分析需要考虑的系统因素,建立模型的范围,然后根据因素之间的关系建立动力学模型,最后通过调研获得数据。建模的思路、模型及仿真结果为多晶硅项目组合的规划提供了借鉴的意义。

Polysilicon is wildly used in Semiconductor industry and solar photovoltaic industry. Along with the rapid development of solar pv industry, the demand for polysilicon has grown Rapidly. Then how to plan the production scale of polysilicon production project became a difficult problem to the polysilicon production enterprise. Due to the consideration of many complex factors in the production system, this paper use the system dynamic theory and model the problem. Based on a specific case, this paper first considerate the factors of the system, set up models, and then collect data according to the scope of the dynamics model. The modeling ideas, model and simulation results for polysilicon project portfolio planning provides reference to the oolvsilicon production enterprise.