水稻农业气象指数保险产品设计——以浙江省为例

Design of Products for Rice Agro-Meteorological Index Insurance:A Case in Zhejiang Province

【目的】设计水稻农业气象保险指数产品,为水稻政策性农业保险可持续发展提供技术支撑。【方法】利用水稻产量灾损与气象因子、大气环流指数的密切关系,建立单季稻产量灾损模型。利用长序列的历史气象资料,基于Beta方法,计算全省各县(市)各级灾损的风险概率,设计不同诱发系数下的纯保险费率及保费,综合区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险优点,设计水稻农业气象指数保险合同。【结果】依据水稻减产风险概率,确定沿海台州、温州、舟山、宁波地区中18个县(市)的诱发系数为7.5%,兰溪等16个县(市)的诱发系数为5.0%,嘉兴等34个县(市)的诱发系数为2.5%;确定了3个区域不同诱发系数下的纯保险费率及保费;依据诱发系数及灾损模型,设计了农业气象保险指数的合同。【结论】农业气象保险指数依据保险经营需求设计,充分运用气象部门水稻产量预测的成熟技术,采用客观的气象数据定损,是水稻农业保险方案的重要创新。该指数的运用,有助于降低逆选择,基本解决传统农业保险中理赔时效低、成本高以及理赔准确度低的弊病,促进农业保险的可持续发展。

【Objective】 Products for agro-meteorological index of rice crop insurance were designed to provide technical support for sustainable development of policy-guided agricultural insurance.【Method】 By means of the correlations between the reduction of rice production and weather factors as well as atmosphere circulation index,a model of reduction of rice output was established.Using meteorological data,the probability of risk in rice reduction at different levels was calculated through beta,and the rates and premiums of insurance were determined.Synthesizing the advantages of products and weather index insurance,the insurance products would be designed.【Result】 Calculating the risk rates of rice yield reduction,the deducible amount was 7.5% in the 18 coastal counties of Taizhou,Zhoushan and Ningbo,5.0% in 16 counties such as Lanxi and 2.5% in 34 counties in Jiaxing.According to the calculus of probability and the model of rice yield loss,the plan and the contracts of rice agro-meteorological index insurance products were designed.【Conclusion】 Agro-meteorological index crop insurance is an innovation meeting the requirements of insurance operations in China.Using the techniques of rice production forecast,determining the damages by means of real meteorological data,the shortages such as low efficiency,high costs and low accuracy would be cut greatly in agricultural insurance operations.It is good to reduce the anti-selection and promote the constant development of agriculture insurance.