中国禽蛋产业链短期市场价格传导机制

The Short-Term Market Price Transmission Mechanism of Egg Industry Chain in China

【目的】禽蛋产业链价格传导涉及生产、流通、消费各个环节,笔者以禽蛋的主要产品——鸡蛋为研究对象,从上、中、下游整个产业链角度动态分析禽蛋产业链短期市场价格间的传导机制,以便能够适时监测及预警禽蛋产品的短期价格波动,减少短期价格波动的频繁发生。【方法】首次应用月度数据对中国禽蛋产业链短期市场价格传导机制进行研究,运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型(VEC)分析鸡蛋产业链中的商品蛋用雏鸡价格(简称雏鸡价)、蛋用配合饲料价格(简称饲料价)、鸡蛋批发市场价格(简称批发价)和鸡蛋零售市场价格(简称零售价)的价格传导关系,并应用方差分解、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果关系检验确定价格间的传导路径及强度。【结果】鸡蛋产业链各环节短期市场价格间存在协整关系,雏鸡价、饲料价、批发价分别变动1%,将会引起零售价变动0.23%、-0.09%和1.04%;鸡蛋产业链价格系统的长期均衡关系制约着短期价格波动,误差修正项的系数为负,其修正强度达17.0%,符合反向修正机制;鸡蛋产业链短期市场价格间的传导并非通畅,在某些环节存在着阻滞现象。其中,下游零售价到上游饲料价、上游饲料价到中游批发价、上游雏鸡价到饲料价、下游零售价到上游雏鸡价、上游雏鸡价到中游批发价、下游零售价到中游批发价的价格传导均存在1个月时滞。【结论】中国鸡蛋产业链各短期市场价格之间存在着长期均衡关系,这种长期均衡关系制约着短期价格波动,以自动减弱价格之间的偏离,促使各种价格走向均衡。鸡蛋价格传导机制主要表现为成本推进型,即由上游产品价格变化引起中游和下游产品价格变化。鸡蛋产业链各价格传导并非通畅,在一些环节存在着阻滞现象,需要相关政府部门制订相应措施,保证价格传导的顺畅,提高价格传导的效率。

【Objective】 Price transmission in egg industry chain involves the steps of production,circulation and consumption.In order to early warn and reduce the short-term market price fluctuations of egg products,the transmission relations and transmission mechanism between the prices were analyzed at the angle of the whole industry chain which is composed of the upstream,midstream and downstream.【Method】 It was the first time for the study on the short-term market price transmission mechanism in egg industry chain in China.The price transmissions of egg industry chain were analyzed with co-integration test and vector error correction model（VEC）.What＇s more,the transmission mechanism between prices was determined by variance decomposition and Granger-causality test model.【Result】 The co-integration test results showed that the co-integration relationship between prices existed in the egg industry chain.Changes of 1% in DYCJJG,PHSL and PFJG would cause the changes of 0.23%,-0.09% and 1.04% in LSGJ,respectively.The egg price fluctuation in short term was restricted by the long-term equilibrium relationship of the price system in egg industry.With a negative error correction coefficient,it was consistent with reverse correction mechanism,meanwhile,the intensity of correction was up to 17%.Accompanied by a certain period of delay,the transmission between the prices in egg industry was not fast smoothly.There was 1 month lag when downstream LSJG transmitted to upstream PHSL,PHSL transmitted to midstream PFJG,upstream DYCJJG transmitted to PHSL,LSJG transmitted to DYCJJG,DYCJJG transmitted to PFJG and LSJG transmitted to PFJG.【Conclusion】 There was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the prices in egg industry,which restricted the price fluctuation in short term,in this way,deviation between the prices would be reduced automatically and an equilibrium of prices emerged.The changes in the price of upstream products would cause the changes in the prices of midstream and downstream products.That the price transmission in egg industry was not fast smoothly means that,some measures made by some departments of the government are needed in order to ensure the smooth of market price transmission in egg industry chain in China,improve the efficiency of price conduction.