地震区域的不动产投资报酬

Return on Real Estate Investments in Seismically Active Regions

同时考虑市场经济波动及随机地震风险等因素,利用折现现金流法(discounted cash flow method)的指标——净现值(net present value,NPV),提出一个量测不动产投资报酬率的架构,并以蒙第卡罗仿真技术(Monte Carlo simulation technique)模拟净现值及其超越概率之关系。此关系提供投资者在投资决策过程中,有关报酬及风险的基本讯息。分析时,不动产的潜在租金收入以随机过程(stochastic process)模拟,地震损坏之年修复成本(annual cost to repair earthquake damages)以年损失量测,并且考虑为随机变量。

A complete pricing model for real estate investments should deal with all risky cash flows,which present particular problems for simulating pro forma financial statements.Using the discounted cash flow（DCF） method with the Monte Carlo simulation technique,this study presents a framework for measuring return on a real estate investment by applying a commonly used DCF index--net present value（NPV）.Based on the framework,a rational appraisal procedure for constructing the relation between NPV and its exceeding probability for discrete discount rates is repeatedly performed.The potential rental income stream for the property is modeled as a stochastic process.The annual cost to repair earthquake damages,measured by the yearly amount of loss,is referred to as a cash outflow in financial statements and assumed to be a random variable.This study addresses formally the issue of uncertainty induced by both economic fluctuation and earthquake loss in real estate appraisals in seismically active regions.The results provide investors with the basic information on risk and return in real estate investment decision-making processes.