我国供方贫困线的实证研究

Empirical Analysis of Chinese Supplier's Poverty Line

兼顾政府的经济实力(供方)和贫困群体的实际生活状况(需方)来确定贫困线更符合我国实情。参照7个发达国家历史上人均GDP指标与贫困线之间的关系,建立5个供方贫困线预测模型。依据数据本身、我国国际地位、我国经济实力和党中央和谐社会的发展目标等原则选择一个最佳模型。若采用美国模型,2008年我国供方贫困线为年人均18 972元。

Considering both government economy power （supplier） and poveriy colony＇ s real living condition （demander） to decide a poverty line would be more suitable for our country. Based on the relationship between GPS per capital and poverty line of seven developed countries＇ historical data, five supplier prediction models will be set up. One best model can be selected based on the principles of data itself, our international status, our economy situation and harmonious society. Our supplier poverty line would be 18972 Yuan in 2008 by American model.