基于广东视角的水产品出口贸易促进渔业经济增长的实证研究

Demonstration Analysis on the Promotion of Fishery Economic Growth by Export Trade of Aquatic Products Based on Guangdong Perspective

采用1998-2009年的数据,并根据单位根检验、协整检验和Grange因果关系检验方法,对广东省水产品出口贸易与渔业经济增长之间长期关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,广东水产品出口贸易与渔业经济增长均为非平稳的时间序列,二者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并且二者之间存在单向Granger因果关系,即水产品出口是渔业经济增长的原因,而渔业经济增长并不是水产品出口的原因。最后就如何提高广东水产品出口的国际竞争力提出了若干对策建议。

Based on the data during 1998-2009,by using unit root test,co-integration test and granger causality test,the relationship between export trade of aquatic products and economic growth of fishery of Guangdong was analyzed.The outcome of the analysis showed that both of export trade of aquatic products and economic growth of fishery of Guangdong were non-stationary time series;there was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between them.There was a one-way Granger causality between the export trade of aquatic products and the economic growth of fishery,which meant that the export of aquatic products was the reason for the economic growth of fishery,but the economic growth of fishery was not the reason for export trade of aquatic products.Finally,some suggestions were given for how to promote the export international competitiveness of aquatic products of Guangdong .