中国高储蓄率问题的原因以及合理性探讨

The Reasons and a Reasonal Discussion of China′s High Saving Rates

鉴于"中国经济责任论"和"储蓄国责任论",选取1978—2009年的季度数据利用协整分析和Granger测试对中国高储蓄率的原因及其合理性进行探讨。协整分析表明:储蓄率、男性出生率、净出口率、美国住房资产价格和经济增长率每增长一个百分点,将导致储蓄率增加0.63、-0.67、-0.002、0.40和0.09个百分点。Granger测试表明了投资率、净出口等变量与储蓄率存在着良好的Granger因果关系。最后得出了结论和相应的政策建议。

Owing to the ＂The Responsibilities about China＇s Eeonomy＂ and ＂The Responsibilities about Saving Countries＂, this paper discusses the reasonable idea about China＇s high saving rates by using quarterly data from 1978 to 2009. The cointeger test indicates that the saving rates will increases 0. 63, - 0. 67, - 0. 002, 0. 40 and 0.09 percent individually as LNINV, LNSEX and other explanatory variable adds 1 percent. Furthermore, the Granger Test shows that LNINV and LNNEI is the Granger reason of LNS. Finally, an conclusion and suggestions are made.